Ghost Writer on Second: "How to explain the Mets' season?"

In our first edition of "Ghost Writer on Second," blog reader Guy Incogneetus writes​:

"If you were the Mets skipper, what would be your explanation for this season so far? I know the obvious answer is injuries, but if you look at their lineup, they are still loaded on paper in both pitching and hitting. Is it an underperforming star pitching staff? Is it homers + no speed = no rallies offense? Is it lack of motivation and lack of "team spirit"? Part of me thinks there is an intangible that cannot be measured that could be the cause of this. Something has to change.

"Maybe when you rearrange furniture in a room, it has the same pieces there, but something suddenly makes it better. The team needs to click. I thought rock bottom would be Matt Harvey's latest scandal, but the bounce back from that was short-lived, and he STILL couldn't make winning baseball his number one priority.

"I have a love/hate relationship with Collins, but lately I'm feeling that this team has it in them to win, yet, they're suffering at the hands of poor management. It's ironic that they have this amazing pitching coach who could squeeze the talent out of these players and develop them as they mature... yet a manager who completely mishandles his bullpen.

"Maybe not having Colon, even as a mentor or reminder to make the game fun...? Maybe. Whatever it is, things feel scary and real coming into the middle of may....in an all-too familiar season for us fans."
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This question about the Mets comes at precisely the right time, Guy. You've nicely addressed a wide range of elements and concerns, and that's really the problem, isn't it? Simply put, there are too many components not functioning properly or fully this year for the Mets.

My brief answer to your question is: if I were Mets skipper, I would explain the lackluster results of the season thus far as a result of a confluence of inadequacies.

Now, in a little more depth...

You used the phrase "on paper," and this is definitely a team that, on paper, was--and, in my Mets fan heart-of-hearts, still is--exciting. This past winter, I picked up a copy of the Sporting News "2017 Baseball Yearbook," and reading the entry on the 2017 Mets, I was struck by how promising they were, quite literally, on paper! However, revisiting that entry this morning, I found it to be no better than frustrating and foreboding. Here's a brief list of quotations from the article (published February 2017) juxtaposed with realities from May 2017:

- "Of the projected six-deep rotation, the only ones to last the season were Noah Syndergaard and Bartolo Colón." Well, the former is out until at least the All-Star Game and the latter, as noted by Guy as well as the magazine, has signed with the rival Braves.

- "...David Wright..." All that needs to be said is Wright's name: conjure up memories of his leadership both on and off the field in past years, then note his essential absence since early in spring training.

- No quotation needed for this next one: in the following paragraph, Lucas Duda, Travis d'Arnaud, and Neil Walker are all addressed as key players lost to injury in 2016. Thirty-five games into the 2017 season, two of those three have again missed significant playing time.

- The next paragraph addresses the headline-news worthy signing of Yoenis Céspedes. Unfortunately, he last played seventeen days ago on April 27th and is currently on the DL. In summary, he has played eighteen games this season, which will amount to half the team total after today's game against the Brewers. He was there for eight wins, or half the Mets' total wins thus far this year. Despite all this time off the field, his batting average (.270) holds at third on the team list, and his six home runs are also good enough for third place.

- "Though the young rotation was as touted as any group since the 'Young Guns' Braves of the early 1990s that included three future Hall-of-Famers, New York's group is proving not nearly as durable." This article lists off the 2016 injury history of starters Zack Wheeler, Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, and Steven Matz. The only player not addressed here--Syndergaard--is now on the DL for the foreseeable future. Matz has yet to arrive to start his season. Harvey has struggled recently and had additional drama off the mound to overcome. Due to a variety of reasons, four additional men have been called on to serve as starters thus far: Robert Gsellman, Rafael Montero, Adam Wilk, and Tommy Milone. Gsellman has struggled mightily, evidenced by his 7.07 ERA and the fact he hasn't gotten past the fifth inning more than once this season--three of his seven starts have ended short of five innings, and four times he has exited in the middle of the inning with no outs and one, two, or three runners on base. Montero's start ended short of four innings pitched, as did Adam Wilk (who, after his one appearance on the season, is no longer a Met). Milone went five innings and gave up two runs in his Mets debut, so he's one to watch closely in his next few starts.

- "Jeurys Familia saved a league-high 51 games last year and led the N.L. in games finished for a second straight season." This sentence was a paragraph unto itself--the final paragraph in the entry and one without caveats. However, after bringing an even 1.00 ERA and 3-for-3 saves record into the game on May 10th, he left with a 3.86 ERA and his first blown save/loss of the season. A day ago, he underwent surgery and may be able to return later this season.


After the blowout loss to the Brewers yesterday, there was understandable frustration with the bullpen and, in particular, Hansel Robles. However, this morning alone, I read two mainstream sports media articles asserting that fingers should be pointed in the direction of the Mets' starting rotation instead. In "The Mets' biggest problem isn't what you think it is," Abbey Mastracco outlines the issue with starting rotation depth... as in, how deep Mets starters are going into games. As she writes about Robles, "Sure, it's not the first time he's done that [give up big runs], but look at where and when he came in, because a reliever shouldn't be in a situation like that [two on and none out] in the fifth inning." As Kristie Ackert put it in her article "Robert Gsellman dud leaves Mets searching for answers," "Over a month into the season, the Mets are not only decimated by injuries but left baffled by their starting pitching." Indeed, the starters must bear significant credit for the state of the season. As I'm sure is true of many who follow the Mets, I've read or heard multiple times recently about how low the Mets are ranking in team ERA, starter ERA, and, more recently, total innings by starters per game. The season is well under way, and it would be folly to be distracted by personas, past success, or possibility. The reality is that the starting pitching needs to stabilize.

Guy also wondered about team spirit or morale in the dugout, and while this is most difficult of all to assess in any real way, I haven't gotten a sense that this is an issue. Even with all the injuries and shortcomings this season, they generally look energetic and hopeful and, more often than not, say the right things to the media. I haven't watched every post-game interview, but I have yet to see manager Terry Collins frustrated with his team in any way that would suggest they aren't trying to live up to their potential.

Ah, potential: this is where my long-winded answer to your excellent question ends. My theory to explain the Mets season thus far? Well, it's definitely been rocked by injuries--to the point that, save for a second baseman and a center fielder, the 2017 DL-Mets could be an All-Star team. I also agree with the aforementioned journalists, and despite my frustration (as a fan, at home, yelling at the television at times) pointed at members of the bullpen, it is foolhardy to blink at the starting pitching--if Mets starters can't get past the fifth and into the sixth and seventh on a regular basis, this will indeed be a recipe for bullpen fatigue and ultimate failure.

Having echoed these points, the only answer I can add to the mix is that I think the 2017 Mets have been menaced by their own potential: by their own understanding of their potential and perhaps even the framing of their potential by those around them, including the media, analysts, and fans. Collins himself has recently pointed to pressure based on what they should be accomplishing. That's the difficulty with potential, as most are likely to have experienced at some point in their lives. It is difficult to quantify, and though it can be held up as a motivation for future success, potential can also be downright intimidating and perhaps even a cause for failure in and of itself.

I'll leave you with this: I was watching the SNY program Mets Yearbook for 2011 yesterday, and R.A. Dickey told the media that year something to the effect of--and I'm paraphrasing here--we need to be realistic about what kind of team we are, then be the best version of that. This may be a useful approach for the 2017 Mets as well, and if done soon and well, they still have a chance to inspire a much more memorable and exciting edition of Mets Yearbook for us to enjoy in the years to come.
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P.S. Click on "Ghost Writer" above to contribute your own question or comment for a future post!


SOURCES:
- "2017 Baseball Yearbook." Sporting News. Editor: Scott Smith. Vol. 241, No. 2: February 2017. Print.
- Ackert, Kristie. "Robert Gsellman dud leaves Mets searching for answers." New York Daily News. Published: May 14, 2017. Web.
- Mastracco, Abbey. "The Mets' biggest problem isn't what you think it is." NJ.com. New Jersey On-Line, LLC. Published: May 14, 2017. Web.